The retirement number that matters isn't a single figure — it depends heavily on when you stop working. Retiring at 55 means funding potentially 35+ years without a paycheck; retiring at 65 means fewer years to cover and full access to Social Security and Medicare. Here's how the target shifts.
Your retirement number is built from how much you'll spend each year, not how much you earn now. A common approach: estimate annual retirement spending, subtract any guaranteed income (Social Security, pension), and the remainder is what your savings must cover.
The widely cited 4% rule (from the Trinity Study) suggests you can withdraw about 4% of your portfolio in year one, adjust for inflation thereafter, and have a high probability of not running out over 30 years. Inverted: you need roughly 25× your annual withdrawal need saved.
| Annual spending need from savings | Nest egg (25×) |
|---|---|
| $40,000 | $1,000,000 |
| $60,000 | $1,500,000 |
| $80,000 | $2,000,000 |
Retiring a decade early hits you three ways at once: you have fewer years to save and compound, more years to fund, and no Social Security or Medicare yet (Social Security starts at 62 at the earliest; Medicare at 65). Early retirees also need a plan to bridge health insurance before 65, which is a significant expense. Because of the longer horizon, many early-retirement planners use a more conservative 3.25–3.5% withdrawal rate, which raises the target to roughly 28–31× spending.
At 65, Social Security (average benefit around $1,900/month in 2026, more if you delay) and Medicare dramatically reduce what your savings must cover. If Social Security covers $30,000 of a $60,000 spending need, your portfolio only has to generate the other $30,000 — a $750,000 target instead of $1.5M. This is why delaying retirement even a few years has an outsized effect.
Project your retirement balance and see how long your savings will last.
Retirement Calculator →It depends entirely on your spending and age. At a 4% withdrawal, $1M supports about $40,000/year plus Social Security. For a modest lifestyle in a low-cost area, that can be comfortable. For higher spending or early retirement, it may fall short.
Substantially. Every $1,000/month of Social Security is like having an extra ~$300,000 in savings (since it replaces $12,000/year of the 4% withdrawal). Delaying benefits from 62 to 70 increases the monthly amount by roughly 76%, which is one of the highest-return decisions in retirement planning.
Yes. The 4% rule was modeled on a 30-year retirement. For a 40-year horizon (retiring at 55), most planners recommend 3.25-3.5% to reduce the risk of outliving your money, which raises your required nest egg accordingly.